Airline Industry: Strategies, operations, safety by Connor R. Walsh

By Connor R. Walsh

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Extra resources for Airline Industry: Strategies, operations, safety

Sample text

That is, specific with respect to the industry and systematic with respect to the individual firms within the industry. Therefore , in this chapter, I add to the literature by empirically testing several potential sources of risk specific to the airline industry and systematic to individual carriers. These sources are: 1. The industry‘s shift from regulation to deregulation. Under regulation, the government closely monitors the industry‘s financial health. This predicts that the risk to shareholders should be less in a regulated environment than under competition.

Thus, while the exact explanatory variables for which the market portfolio proxies are open for debate, my findings nonetheless suggest that 9/11 set off a structural break in the sensitive of carriers to certain macroeconomic risk sources. Further, these sources are effectively captured in the single-index model. 42 Ray R. Sturm suggests that in addition to the switching effect, the industry as a whole will face increased stock volatility following an airline crash. An extension to this research could be to test the option market‘s efficiency in capturing this effect – work which will be saved for future studies.

The American Airlines crash is excluded due to its proximity to the events of 9/11. The 1, 2 and 3 month‘s average variability in returns is examined using non-overlapping data. For example, a Pan Am crash occurred in July 1982 and in August 1982, so the first event is dropped and September 1982 is the +1 month. Additionally, for post-event periods greater than one month, only the nonevent months are considered. For example, a crash occurred in July of 1994 followed by another one in September 1994.

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