2052: scenari globali per i prossimi quarant’anni by Jorgen Randers, G. Bologna

By Jorgen Randers, G. Bologna

1972: su incarico del membership di Roma, un gruppo di studiosi dell’MIT pubblica I Limiti dello sviluppo, che prefigura gli effetti della crescita della popolazione, dei consumi e dell’inquinamento su un pianeta fisicamente limitato. Dopo decenni di critiche feroci, ormai si ammette che le conclusioni di quello studio erano corrette.

2012: Jorgen Randers, uno dei coautori di I limiti dello sviluppo, fa il punto su quanto è successo e prova a delineare il futuro globale da qui al 2052. Vivremo sempre più nelle città, saremo più connessi e creativi, e dovremo trovare nuovi modi in step with gestire le tensioni dovute alle diseguaglianze crescenti. Probabilmente los angeles popolazione non crescerà quanto previsto, con una riduzione degli impatti sulla biosfera, ma le rinnovabili non riusciranno a rimpiazzare i combustibili fossili in pace according to eliminare del tutto l. a. possibilità di un riscaldamento climatico catastrofico... Nessun settore è escluso, e Randers ci mette a disposizione una guida in keeping with interpretare e gestire le turbolenze dei prossimi quarant’anni.

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Extra info for 2052: scenari globali per i prossimi quarant’anni

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The availability of irrigation water depends on both local rainfall, which recharges surface dams and shallow wells, and water reaching a block through rivers, canals, and pipes. River flows and reservoir storages do not depend on local rainfall but on the catchments that were outside of the study area. An analysis of available data suggested that a detailed hydrological model was not feasible at either the block or larger scale. Irrigated and rain-fed areas were computed in the planting area model by crop, by season, and by block.

The crop yield model simulates crop yields for different drought events. Farmers’ crop planting decisions are estimated through the planting area model. Production is the product of crop yield and cropped area, while production loss for a given drought event and crop is calculated as the difference between production during a normal year and production in a given drought year. This module quantifies the damage caused to each asset by the intensity and duration of a given drought at a site. Drought mainly affects flow items, such as crops, while rapid onset disasters cause main losses among stock items.

The indirect loss module links direct monetary Methodological Framework 25 loss estimates at the block level, as assessed in the direct loss module, with estimated indirect drought losses at the state level. Input-output model An intersectoral input-output table, the basis of the input-output model, was developed for Andhra Pradesh to measure the interactions between the economic sectors at the state level. While the Central Statistical Organization has been constructing such a table for the India-wide economy since 1973–4, it was constructed for the first time for the state of Andhra Pradesh in this study.

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